Fire in the Future: Interactions with Ecosystems and Society

The drought in Europe in summer 2018 shows how forest and vegetation fires jeopardise infrastructure, properties, human health, and the economic value of forests. On the other hand, fires initiate a regrowth of ecosystem and contribute to diversity of species in many ecosystems. Humans use fire as a tool in farming and land management since thousands of years. To prevent loses from fires, humans also fight fires, or passively suppress the spread of fires through the fragmentation of landscapes. This means that humans cause diverse effects on fires. Climate change might cause an increased and intensified occurrence of fires. However, it is not clear how the occurrence of fires might change under future climate conditions because the human role on fires was until now not considered in most scientific studies. In the FURNACES project, physical and social scientist from Germany and Austria will work together to better understand and estimate how human activities, climate change, and vegetation changes will affect future. Based on previous studies, satellite observations and climate models, we will develop a new database and improved models about interactions between humans and fire. We will then estimate the future development of fires and their impacts on ecosystem and societies in the 21st century. The results will contribute to improved climate projections and will serve as the scientific basis for future strategies of fire management.

The drought in Europe in summer 2018 showed how forest and vegetation fires jeopardized infrastructure, properties, human health, and the economic value of forests. On the other hand, fires initiated a regrowth of ecosystems and contributed to the diversity of species in many ecosystems. Humans used fire as a tool in farming and land management for thousands of years. To prevent losses from fires, humans also fought fires or passively suppressed the spread of fires through the fragmentation of landscapes. This meant that humans caused diverse effects on fires. Climate change might have caused an increased and intensified occurrence of fires. However, it was not clear how the occurrence of fires might have changed under future climate conditions because the human role in fires had not been considered in most scientific studies until then. In the FURNACES project, physical and social scientists from Germany and Austria worked together to better understand and estimate how human activities, climate change, and vegetation changes would affect the future. Based on previous studies, satellite observations, and climate models, we developed a new database and improved models about interactions between humans and fire. We then estimated the future development of fires and their impacts on ecosystems and societies in the 21st century. The results would contribute to improved climate projections and would serve as the scientific basis for future strategies of fire management.