EUROCORES_LogiCCC: Counterfactual reasoning in children (LcpR)

Important insights into the structure of adult logical reasoning competence can be gained from studying the development of reasoning. The development of counterfactual reasoning is particularly interesting because of its relevance for causal reasoning, theory of mind and non-monotonic logic. Developmental research on counterfactual reasoning was primarily driven by the question as to when this faculty emerges in development. More recent research, including our own, has made clear that counterfactual reasoning emerges incrementally. For example, the ability to entertain a possibility different from reality emerges early, but the clear insight that counterfactual scenarios have to be taken as counterfactual to a particular real event (akin to David Lewis` nearest possible world criterion) comes much later. We will not only identify when these different components are acquired, but also what drives this development, such as conceptual change and/or general cognitive processes (e.g., memory capacity), and how it relates to development of causal understanding and of theory of mind. The interdisciplinary nature of the proposed research can be served optimally by the expert input from our project partners, who are logicians and workers in artificial intelligence , in particular IP1 (Schurz), IP2 (Kistler), IP4 (Kleiter) and other experts in children`s counterfactual reasoning AP6 (Beck). This interaction will provide not only a clearer picture of the development of counterfactual reasoning but also a richer insight of adult competence, with benefits for the logical analysis and artificial modelling of counterfactual reasoning and non-monotonic logic.

In everyday life we often reflect on how an event in the past might have turned out differently or how the world would be if we had decided differently. To create such alternatives to known facts is called Counterfactual Reasoning (CFR). CFR is an important feature of human cognition; it helps to evaluate decisions, to improve and adapt behaviours, and to extract causal factors that are informative for scientific inferences. Our project focused on the development of CFR.The projects most important result is that CFR develops gradually between 6 and 12 years. Earlier studies had shown that even 3-year-old children were able to answer counterfactual questions correctly. However, these studies did not control for the possibility that children were using alternative strategies, such as hypothetical reasoning, that closely mimic CFR. When children use hypothetical reasoning they apply typical regularities (e.g., If it doesnt rain the street is dry) to counterfactual questions (e.g., If it had not rained, would the street be wet or dry?) without regard for actual events (e.g. that the street cleaners had just been washing the street). CFR, in contrast, is constrained by such actual events in the world. In part 1 of the project we developed tasks that were capable of distinguishing children who employ hypothetical reasoning from children who employ CFR. We could show that CFR develops much later than had been shown in earlier studies.In part 2 of the project we used these new insights into the development of CFR to locate childrens ability to feel counterfactual emotions, specifically regret and relief. In particular we were able to show that counterfactual emotions emerge around the same age as CFR. This is an important finding since counterfactual emotions are relevant to make adequate decisions and to learn from previous mistakes. Part 3 of the project applied the knowledge gained in part 1 to investigate links between CFR and childrens understanding of the mind. We found that childrens ability to reason within a different perspective (other than their own) is highly correlated with their ability to apply CFR.