AIDS Policy Modeling on the Road to the 21st Century

The World Health Organization reported that in 1996, for the first time in the course of the epidemic, there has been a marked decrease in deaths among people with AIDS in many industrialized countries. That trend reversal was effectuated by the administration of advanced suppressors and by selective prevention programs. Operations Research and Management Science practitioners and methodologists were successful in creating epidemiological models for forecasting the growth (and decline) of HIV/AIDS under alternative plausible action-oriented scenarios. However, most of the HIV/AIDS policy models only cover selected intervention strategies (e.g. needle-exchange campaigns, testing, administration of a suppressor) in a few populations (e.g. drug addicts, homosexuals, child- bearing women). However, the tremendous change in the spread of the epidemic worldwide will urge researchers to develop more comprehensive policy models to consider a wider range of possible intervention strategies such as testing, change of birth behaviour, modification of drug use and sexual behaviour, medical intervention, and immigration or visa policy in different populations simultaneously. Hereby, we have anticipated that trend in AIDS policy modelling by developing a comprehensive model. Policymakers such as the Federal Ministry of Labour, Health and Social Affairs, the Aids Help, and the Red Cross use our accurate multiperiod compartmental policy simulator to institute cost-effective interventions (e.g. administration of suppressors, screening, and vaccination programs) to control the epidemic in terms of a general framework (e.g. birth, death, and migration rates; number of homosexuals, drug addicts, and prostitutes; effectiveness of suppressors). The experience and success of the application of the model to the population of Vienna, Austria and the simultaneous consideration of different intervention programs in different populations will contribute to research in the United States where no one has used empirical data to consider multiple interventions in multiple populations simultaneously. Furthermore, the effect of the advanced therapies on the future course of the epidemic and the costs incurred for selected populations and intervention programs will be investigated at the Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management at the Stanford University (USA). The selected populations and intervention programs will have to be defined in collaboration with Professor Margaret Brandeau to contribute to the distinguished project "Public Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Interventions". Moreover, it could be analyzed whether and under which circumstances potential vaccinations are more cost-effective than advanced therapies in certain populations. Besides, it will have to be investigated, which are the best strategies to allocate the therapy budget among sub-populations and among people at different disease stages in developing countries because of scarce resources. However, the model will have to be revised for the research project concerning the model structure (e.g. enlargement of disease stages, improvement of outcome measures) Ad the data needed at Stanford University.