Should I stay or should I go? A critical analysis of the new right to withdraw from the EU

Three years after Europe`s leaders agreed upon a draft constitution, and two years after Dutch and French voters rejected it, the continent`s prime ministers and presidents have salvaged large parts of the old text and stitched them together into a new `reform treaty`. 1 In essence, the Reform Treaty will bring about major institutional changes, such as the creation of the post of President of the European Council or High Representative for Foreign and Security Affairs. Yet it also contains another key amendment which has hardly received any media attention despite its potential to shake the very foundations of the EU: the unilateral right to withdraw from the EU. For the first time in its history, EU law will provide for an express, unilateral right to withdraw from the Union. EU membership is thus no longer a `marriage for life`, but rather a so-called `Lebensabschnittspartnerschaft`. 2 What effect will this new right have on the EU? Will it lead to a gradual fragmentation of what was supposed to be `an ever closer union of unlimited duration`? Or will it even mark the beginning of the end of the Union? In order to answer these complex questions, this project will proceed as follows. It will first (1) analyze the current, pre-Reform treaty situation regarding withdrawal. It will then (2) critically examine the newly inserted Article 50 which codifies the right to withdraw. Particular attention will be paid to the (in)compatibility of such a right and the `nature of the EU as an ever closer Union`. Having done so, it will then (3) examine whether non-legal considerations, such as political and economic reasons will render withdrawal a theoretical rather than real option. Last but not least (4), I will propose a new normative framework that can cope adequately with a situation as complex as withdrawal. 1 Also referred to as Lisbon Treaty. Though this treaty is currently put on hold following the negative vote in the Irish referendum, there is widespread agreement that the reform treaty will enter in force in some form or another. Moreover, it must be emphasised that the supporters and the opponents of the reform treaty both support the `withdrawal clause` discussed here.So its entry into force is not a question of `if` but `when`. 2 I.e. `A partnership for a certain phase in one`s life`.