The Management of Catastrophic Risk

Research project P 14475 The Management of Catastrophic Risk Joanne LINNEROOTH-BAYER 09.10.2000 This proposed research will develop methodologies and applications for assessing and managing urban flood risks. The two-years study will be carried out by the international Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the Institute für Wissenschaft, Hydrologie und Konstruktiven Wasserbau of Universität für Bodenkultur (IWHW- BOKU), in collaboration with the Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRO) of Kyoto University in Japan. The analysis will focus on flood risks in the Tokyo area. Flood preventive measures exist in parallel, collaborative study of flood risks in the area. Flood preventive measures exist in both cities; however they need re-evaluation in light of factors such as increased urbanisation and climate change that may be leading to increased risks. Specifically, the research will: * develop and apply innovative methodologies for assessing the probability (in the absence of sufficient historical data and in light of climate change) of three types of flood events in Vienna: dam failures of the upstream Danube impoundments, flood from smaller rivers in the urbanised areas, and intensive rainfall events in the densely populated and impervious regions of Vienna; * estimate the expected direct and indirect losses from selected scenarios of these events in light of increased urbanization, making use of data on property values and also flood loss data from comparable events outside of Vienna; * develop a flood generator and catastrophe model that can potentially generate probabilistic flood losses from one of the flood cases; * discuss measures that can be taken to lower the probabilities or damages from these events, as well as measures to improve their insurability; and, * compare the results with the simultaneous study of flood risk in Tokyo. This study will yield information on the economic risk of flood events that will be important for policy makers, insurers and the residents of Vienna.