Biodiversity persistence under climate change

Changes in climate and land use affect where organisms live and how they interact with each other. Organisms depend on things that affect them in the short term and the long term, such as the conditions where they live or their evolutionary history. We know a lot about European butterflies, how they live, and where they are found today. In this project, we will gather all available information about where each butterfly species occurs and what plants their caterpillars feed on in each region of Europe to determine which areas are most diverse in terms of the number of species. Using models that predict what the environment will look like in the future, we can then predict how the ranges of species and their host plants will change in the future and whether areas that are rich in species today will continue to harbour such diversity in the future. Combining this information with what we know about the evolutionary history of European butterflies, we can then study which species will have a better chance of adapting to their new environment and surviving, and which may become extinct. This is the first time anyone has combined information about evolutionary history with that about ecology to predict the future of European butterflies.

Butterflies are among the most iconic insects in Europe, yet they face growing threats from land use changes and climate change. Our project set out to answer a crucial question: What will the future look like for Europe's butterflies and their biodiversity hotspots? For the first time, we created species distribution models for all European butterfly species, incorporating not only their currently preferred climate but also the plants they depend on for survival. This approach allowed us to explore whether butterflies and their host plants might become "decoupled" in the future meaning that suitable conditions for one may no longer match those for the other. Using data on where butterflies occur today, we projected their potential distributions under future climate and land use scenarios. Early results for specific species highlight the complexity of these changes. For example, closely related species in the genus Limenitis showed contrasting responses to future conditions. We also examined the fate of Papilio alexanor, the threatened southern swallowtail, which faces severe challenges in maintaining its current range. Why does this matter? In a time of global insect decline, understanding future trends is essential for conservation. Our findings help identify future biodiversity hotspots and regions at risk, providing valuable guidance for protecting butterflies. These insights can inform conservation planning, management, and policy decisions aimed at preserving Europe's natural heritage.