Plant Naturalization Risk Under Global Environmental Change

The considerably accelerated intentional and accidental translocation of organisms has led to ever-growing numbers of alien species. According to the most comprehensive database of alien plants, GloNAF, to date over 13,000 plant species managed to naturalize somewhere around the globe. Intensifying global changes (e.g., climate, land-use) are known to be major drivers of invasions, and depending on future trajectories of change will likely become even more important. Thus, investigating the role of environmental changes on the current and future distribution of alien plant species is a priority for research - and proactive management of alien species. We aim at improving our understanding of the current and future distribution patterns of the global pool of alien naturalized plants under environmental change. Specifically, we aim to assess the current and future potential distributions of the GloNAF; relate these distribution patterns to plant attributes and functional traits; and assess the role of climate and plant characteristics on the global patterns of niche unfilling (i.e. naturalization debts).To project the current and future potential distribution of the alien flora, we will use ensemble species distribution modeling techniques using the latest updated species occurrence records and high-resolution data on current and future (2070) environmental data under contrasting scenarios of environmental change. We will then relate these projections to the plants attributes to assess the drivers of GloNAF distribution patterns. This project will provide the first environmental suitability modeling of the global naturalized alien flora. This represents a unique opportunity for assessing the current distribution, future spread potential and differences among scenarios, species groups and regions in expected levels of invasion. Further, we will relate these patterns to potential drivers of biological invasion, assessing the global extent and drivers of naturalization debs and niche expansion. Thus, this project will provide important insights into patterns and drivers of biological invasions.