Congo basin forests: tipping points for biodiversity conservation and resilience (CoForTips)

Reasoning The loss of rainforest is an emerging issue in the Congo Basin. The forests of the Congo Basin have been identified as part of the 10% of the wildest areas on Earth. They have been classified as globally outstanding for their biodiversity , and until now, the level of threat on biodiversity is comparatively low compared to other eco-regions in Africa, as human pressures are low, the rates of endemism are low, and the areas of distribution of species are large (Burgess et al., 2006). However, large scale conversion of forests to other uses (agriculture and mining) driven by population increase, globalization and increased access, with detrimental impacts on biodiversity and associated ecosystems are projected for the Congo Basin. These scenarios suggest that the forests of the Congo basin would find themselves under considerable pressure on both ends of their area of distribution. Scientific objectives Our purpose is to foster a better management of the Congo Basin forests through a better understanding of the dynamics, regime shifts and tipping points of biodiversity and a better definition of the conditions of resilience of social and ecological systems. We have four specific objectives: (a) Map biodiversity resilience and identify stable states and tipping points; (b) Identify drivers, analyse the potential impacts of policy and management decisions on biodiversity and on the SES ability to provide and deliver ecosystem services; (c) Integrate social, economic, governance, ecological and geophysical processes in a platform for modelling scenarios of biodiversity, including sensitivity analysis and levels of uncertainty; (d) Embed the results of our research in the decision making process at the regional and national levels; Role of the national partner IIASA IIASA will be responsible for work package 3 "Integration of processes and modelling", with Dr. Michael Obersteiner as leader. In this WP we will integrate the resilience landscapes mapped out in WP1 with the drivers identified in WP2. The platform will thus incorporate biophysical, ecological and socio-economic drivers and processes. It will address the trends in policies of land allocation, forest preservation and exploitation, as well as on local dynamics of land use practices in forestry, agroforestry and agriculture. WP 3 will develop computing tools allowing inferring, predicting and mapping dynamics and processes at the regional and national scale taking into account uncertainties of the input data and models. The following tasks are part of WP3: Task 3.1. Interlinking global models; Task 3.2. Sensitivity analysis and management of uncertainties; Task 3.3. Prediction of biodiversity outcomes of various governance options; Task 3.4. Conditional and unconditional simulations;

The future forests of the Congo Basin will likely be more fragmented, more deciduous and richer in pioneer light demanding species. This is based on the identification of 10 types of forests in Central Africa along two axes: deciduous or evergreen, and their position in the ecological succession and the combination of botanical knowledge of more than 15 experts to produce the first general successional model for the forests of Central Africa which was validated by inventory data gathered from 19 logging companies. We have also developed measures to quantify and describe landscape changes based on the land uses and their structure, human pressure, and climate change. Moreover, according to the BGC model, the risk of forest dieback is particularly high along the meteorological equator, with the highest probability of forest dieback within the TRIDOM area.When the forest shrinks, forest resources, bushmeat and non-timber forest products, are replaced by agricultural products in the household food supply and budget. In the process, the women and men living in these shifting landscapes develop new norms and institutions, open access to land and resources replaced by private and exclusive ownership, with clear winners and losers. These conclusions draw on detailed household data on food consumption, land use practices and land status which have been collected in three villages in Gabon and Cameroon, to understand the contribution of the forest and its biodiversity to the livelihood of the people. Deforestation will likely increase by at least 55% over 2020-2030 compared to the period 2000-2010 in the Congo Basin. Pressure will be particularly high in Centre Cameroon and in the East of the Democratic Republic of Congo. These results have been obtained with the GLOBIOM model. In the Congo Basin countries, increasing domestic food consumption due to strong population and economic growth is the main driver of deforestation in the next decades. From scenarios analysis, an increase of agricultural productivity is the most beneficial to reconcile agricultural development, to reduce deforestation and to conserve biodiversity. It is also important to strengthen protected areas and keep forest concessions to avoid higher negative impacts on deforestation and biodiversity. Finally, we developed process-based role-playing games that allow stakeholders to grasp the complexity of the system and devise new strategies and new forms of collective action. Our results let stakeholders and decision makers develop their own scenarios of biodiversity. Used at the village level, they develop social capital and trust. At the regional level, they act as negotiation tools, helping shape the future governance of the forests of the region.