NEXTQUAKE

An earthquake is a sudden release of seismic energy caused by the slip on a fault or by volcanic activity, resulting in ground shaking. Earthquakes are a major threat to infrastructure and populations and are responsible for about one-third of the global economic and human natural disaster loss. In the last 30 years, about a thousand earthquakes have been the first cause of worldwide deaths (about 800,000 fatalities) and the second cause of worldwide economic losses due to natural disasters (US$844 bn). Due to their occurrence on shallow faults close to densely populated areas, earthquakes can be highly destructive. Great earthquakes were responsible for calamities, but even moderate earthquakes have shown their devastating effects on the population, cultural heritage, and economy. Moreover, many areas worldwide are highly vulnerable to natural risks which are exacerbated by poverty, inequality, unplanned urbanization, and ecosystem degradation. Despite the fascination of seismologists with predicting the timing and location of earthquakes, to date, no scientific method exists to predict where and when an earthquake will occur; we are not able to predict where and when an earthquake will occur, but we can make forecast. A forecast can tell us the likelihood of a future earthquake in a region. It can tell us how big the quakes could be and how frequently they could occur over a specific period. Faults that are prone to future strong earthquakes are numerous in the world and often sufficiently known by scientists to be used in traditional seismic hazard assessment. However, there is an urgent need to improve our ability to place constraints, for instance, on which fault is most likely to rupture and on the likely time remaining until rupture is probable. In this sense, it is our duty to forge a next generation earthquake forecast model. The project aims to fill the gap in knowledge when faults are considered in these analyses and to provide a basis for long-term forecast and real-time information on evolving earthquake likelihoods, in order to reduce the seismic risk in region such as central Italy and to export the results to other countries characterized by the presence of strategic facilities (such as nuclear power plants in Spain), high seismic release (such as Greece and Turkey), and highly populated area (such as the Vienna Basin, Austria). The project combines interdisciplinary research, cutting-edge methodologies, and collaboration with leading institutions to tackle critical challenges in earthquake forecast and mitigation. We cannot prevent earthquakes, but we can be prepared when the next one strikes.