SALBES - Scenarios for Agricultural Landscapes

European agricultural landscapes are undergoing profound changes, often at great environmental costs such as loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Scientific methodologies to identify and model drivers and impacts of location specific ecological infrastructures at landscape level are insufficient so far. However, they are needed to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services, and to conserve the resilience of ecosystems under a changing climate and land use. The main aims of SALBES are to i) identify land use drivers, ii) model land use decisions under a set of stakeholder- driven scenarios, and iii) analyse the resulting land use impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Long term assessments of complex systems require input of appropriate models of various disciplines. In the case of agricultural landscapes, we utilize and adapt existing generic bio-economic farm models capturing the impact of changing conditions for agriculture and delivering input to models assessing the impact of land use options directly and through interdependencies between land use and landscape structures on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Building upon the expertise and available modelling approaches within the consortium, SALBES will develop integrated assessment models adapted to the respective regional peculiarities. Case study areas in four European countries will represent various settings. The primary focus will be on stakeholder initiatives, especially from agriculture, which have already begun implementing biodiversity and ecosystem services conservation schemes into the agricultural production processes. Crucial research activities, including stakeholder input, will analyse the current agricultural production and future options, including adaptation to climatic change and agro-technological progress. The results will reveal potentials and limitations on what agriculture can do to maintain the ecological infrastructure within a landscape. This includes various levels, from farms to policies, offering paths to the most cost efficient implementation of resilient ecological infrastructures. These model combinations, co-designed by stakeholders, constitute scientific advancements and will cover a variety of biodiversity and ecosystem services of landscape specific importance. Most importantly, the agricultural production systems will be adequately integrated. This approach will be of political interest by identifying goals and actions on the scale of various fields of action to safeguard sustainable development of agricultural landscapes. The team at BOKU University contributes with its expertise on integrated bio-economic farm modelling. It will lead WP4 on Impacts of drivers on farmers economic decision making and resulting land use. Modelled land use outputs are input to models on biodiversity and ecosystem services. BOKU will support the set-up of farm models in the case study regions and will run the FAMOS[space] model in the Austrian case study Wienerwald Biosphere Reserve. Furthermore, BOKU will contribute to WP2 on Multi-actor/stakeholder approach and scenario development due to its expertise on the management of stakeholder processes and scenario building process gained from national and international research projects.

The University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU) and the University of Vienna (UNIVIE) were part of the international research project SALBES (salbes.eu) funded within the Biodiversa Call BiodivScen (2017-2018). The aim of SALBES was to assess relationships between agriculture, climate change and biodiversity conservation. As a basis, scenarios were developed for four European case studies. These scenarios describe possible climatic and socio-economic framework conditions (such as prices or technological development) for agriculture in 2050. For example, they outline how public attitudes towards the environment and nature conservation might develop, because this in turn is a crucial driver for agricultural policies. The scenarios are used in integrative land use models to assess the ecological and economic consequences of possible future framework conditions in the respective case studies. BOKU and UNIVIE worked together on a case study in the Biosphere Reserve Wienerwald. Five comprehensive scenarios for the Austrian agri-food systems (AT-Agri-SSPs) were co-created with a diverse group of experts. Each of these scenarios consists of about 80 different elements which are consistent with each other. In a further step, the scenarios were transferred to the regional situation of the Wienerwald region. Using an integrative land use model, the researchers quantified their consequences and those of climate change for selected farms and biodiversity. The model results show, for example, changes in yields, changes in the amount of fertilizers and finally in agricultural income. The loss of biodiversity is among others a consequence of the loss of semi-natural farmland. The climatic situation of the Wienerwald in 2050 could be similar to the current climate of the region around Lake Neusiedl or south-western Hungary and in 2080 to the current climate in regions in Croatia or Serbia. This will change the spectrum of agricultural crops. For example, soybeans are likely to gain in attractiveness, while cereals are likely to lose. Grassland use will lose yield potential due to higher water stress risks without further adaptation measures. Nevertheless, the results show that the impact of climate change on agriculture by 2050 may be smaller than the impact of changing agricultural markets and policies. In any case, as in the past, farmers' decisions will be decisive for biodiversity development. In particular, the loss or gain of important semi-natural habitats in the agricultural landscape, such as hedgerows, single trees as well as extensively managed meadows and pastures, is actively controlled by farmers. Results from SALBES show that the maintenance or increase of green infrastructure plays an important role for the future of biodiversity in agricultural regions. Scenarios and model results as developed in SALBES allow a targeted discussion on the long-term development of agricultural landscapes and can inform political decision-making processes.