Scenarios for biodiversity and ecosystem services (BIOESSHEALTH)

The scenarios of the 2017 UN Emissions Gap Report show a large gap between the emission reductions necessary to limit global warming to 1.5-2C and the likely emissions reductions from full implementation of countries own contributions to mitigate climate change as set out before the COP22 meeting in Paris. This report thereby highlights that the countries current climate commitment and targets to transit from a fossil- to a bio-based economy are insufficient to limit global warming. Developing the bio-economy is a key component in limiting climate change. However, its development is expected lead to an intensification in the use of our forests. In addition, the European climate mitigation targets are expected to lead to a considerable increase in the use of forest biomasses. As the development of forest is a key contributor to the global loss of species, a non-sustainable future increase in the use of forest biomass may also have adverse impact on future biodiversity. In this project, the research teams will address and analyse the following six research questions: i.What are the potential effects of future demand of wood from the European forest landscapes? To assess such effects, different global scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction pathways will be studied in order to measure their effect on future demand of wood. The work will include down- scaling global demand to national- and landscape-level demand to enable the assessment of the implications for the two largest forest biomes in Europe. ii.How should we manage the boreal and central European forests to meet the global demand of wood for different global scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction pathways. We will contrast different land-use managements that maximises either revenue, biodiversity, ecosystem services or human well-being to reveal trade-offs and synergies. iii. How do competition and facilitation modify the forest stand dynamics of mixed versus mono- specific stands. Also, how do they modify the ecological, economical, and socio-economical performance of trees? iv.Do forest, climate variables and species interactions explain the community structure of beetles in the Nordic and central European forests? v. Do forest and climate variables explain the forest ecosystem services? vi.How does the local forest structure affect human perception and well-being? We examine perceived preferences and responses regarding well-being in different forest types. The novelty of our inter- and trans-disciplinary work is that we will jointly study landscape-scale forestry, conservation and human well-being, and how they account for the policy-relevant scenarios of future global demand for wood products (co-production). The two-way communication with stakeholders throughout the whole project will ensure valuable input at the beginning of the project (co-design), and successful (co-)dissemination of the project findings.

The overall objective was to identify national forest management strategies that produce wood in a sustainable way while also promoting biodiversity and public health. The strategies balanced the global demand for wood, the profitability of forestry, the preservation of forest species communities, and human wellbeing. We have estimated the future global demand for wood and the supply of wood in EU countries during the coming 100 years, using the scenarios in the UN Emissions Gap Report. Based on the estimated global demand for wood from the study countries, we have identified national or landscape-level scenarios with profitable forestry, richer communities of forest beetles and enhanced restorative capacity of the forest. To identify these scenarios, the project first developed the global land-use model GLOBIOM, and further models for the dynamics of individual trees, the structure of beetle communities and indices for the restorative capacity of forest aiming for stress release and reduction. Developing the models also allowed answering ecological or conservational questions. For example, we found that forest and climate variables do predict beetle communities, but that effects of traits on species' responses and associations vary among biogeographic regions in Europe. We also show that rare species add important functional diversity to beetle communities. Finally, we found that the forest stand structure explain the perceived restorative value of the forest, and that people working in forests find this value a bit lower than do people not working in forests.