Wearing counterfactual glasses: a core principle?

People often reflect on how things might have turned out differently if they had acted differently in the past. Creating such alternatives to known facts has been defined as counterfactual reasoning (CFR). CFR (assuming that something were the case) has logically been differentiated from hypothetical reasoning (assuming that something is the case) with the closest possible world constraint. For example, we might assume counterfactually that if it hadn`t rained Marie would be dry. In order to do so we retain as many features of the actual world as possible. We only change what is stipulated in the if-antecedent of the counterfactual assumption together with logical and causal consequences of that assumption (closest possible world constraint). Recent research has shown that the understanding of this constraint develops between 5 and 14 years. Part I of the proposed project aims to establish this new approach to CFR. It will bring new insights into the developmental progression of CFR in 5- to 14-year-olds by controlling for various alternative explanations (e.g., executive functioning) that could account for existing findings. A logical analysis of how CFR can be differentiated from other kinds of reasoning (e.g., basic conditional reasoning, BCR) will be tested empirically. Data collection with English speaking children will help to clear up discrepancies found between British and Austrian samples. Part II of the proposed project aims to investigate whether the acquisition of CFR, specifically to follow the closest possible world constraint, is developmentally related to children`s acquisition of counterfactual emotions, for example regret. More specifically, the distinction between process and outcome regret will be applied; this distinction has so far been neglected in developmental studies. Physiological measurements (e.g., EDA, specifically skin conductance, facial EMG) will enable us to measure children`s emotional reactions without having to rely on their introspective abilities. This will help to resolve an existing discrepancy about the onset of children`s ability to experience counterfactual emotions. Part III will bring new insights into the developmental relation between CFR and scientific reasoning. Sound scientific reasoning determines a cause by manipulating one variable and holding constant all the other variables, a close relative of the closest possible world constraint. The systematic investigation of children`s mastery of this constraint will give a new and timely theoretical impetus to the Piagetian stage of formal operations and fill a gap in the cognitive development in the early teens. This part of the project is of fundamental educational relevance for enhancing and supporting children`s scientific reasoning skills.