Sustainability of ski tourism in Tyrol-Southern Tyrol

The importance of studies dealing with the potential impact of climate change on winter tourism is due to the fact that skiing is among those segments of tourism which are most at risk in view of an ongoing warming trend. Potential climate changes combined with a marked warming trend would pose a threat to the snow-reliability of many Alpine ski resorts. Studies based on scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs) suggest that a potential climatic change would lead to a complex mix of winners and losers reaching from elevated ski resorts with good natural conditions for skiing on one side to ski resorts with marginal conditions in lower areas on the other. Taking into account the present significance of winter sports in many Alpine resorts, the consideration of climate change issues must no longer be neglected in the discussion of the future of the ski industry in the Tyrol - Southern Tyrol region. A possible climate change would involve economic decline on a national but - to a much greater extent - also on a regional and local level. For some resorts in the Tyrol - Southern Tyrol region the ski industry is by far the main source of income and employment and yet no alternative to skiing capable of generating similar financial resources has been found. The aim of the proposed research project is to detect the climate-sensitive areas in the Tyrol - Southern Tyrol region (climate-sensitivity results from the combination of economic significance of winter tourism and snow- reliability) and to define, develop and implement sustainable strategies for mitigation and adaptation. Thus, the projected economic consequences will then be a basis for the development of master plans with alternative concepts concerning sustainable winter tourism. The methodology adopted in the proposed project will be based on an integrated inter-disciplinary approach, observing not only changes in environmental systems in the Tyrol - Southern Tyrol region but also including their impact on present socio-economic systems. While present definitions of snow-reliability only deal with the "natural snow-reliability", a broader understanding of this concept will be used in this project considering the growing importance of technical snow-production for the skiing industry. The complex interrelations and interdependencies between atmospheric processes and socio-economic aspects will be taken into account in their specific forms in the Tyrol - Southern Tyrol region. So far no detailed assessment of the impact of climatic change in the Tyrol - Southern Tyrol region has been carried out. Due to the present ski and snow dependency of many resorts in that area, a profound understanding of current climate influences is essential for the tourist industry in order to cope with the challenge of future climate change and its potential far-reaching effects on the competitive balance of Alpine destinations.

Potential impacts of climate change on ski tourism in the Tyrol region Robert Steiger and Lisa Trawöger investigated the potential impacts of climate change on ski tourism in the Tyrol region in their PhD theses, funded by the FWF (Austrian Science Fund). The within the project framework developed ski season model shows, that serious impacts on ski tourism can be expected by 2030 in some regions in the research area (Tannheim valley, Innsbruck region, Kitzbuehel region, Val Gardena). The findings of a perception analysis among Tyrolean winter tourism stakeholders show that climate change is not perceived as a real and immediate threat. The study results indicate an urgent need for action. However, the climate projections indicate that Tyrolean ski tourism wont be affected seriously until the 2030s. Thus, there is still time for those responsible to develop and implement the essential restructuring strategies. Ski areas snow reliable until 2030/2040, Christmas holidays threatened by 2020 All ski areas are snow reliable until 2030 in Tyrol and 2040 in South Tyrol, considering that all ski slopes are equipped with snowmaking facilities. Consequently, the ski areas in Tyrol need to increase snow production by 25 % (South Tyrol: 40 %) in the average by 2030. The Christmas period is very sensitive: About 20 % (South Tyrol: 15 %) of the ski areas have to expect problems offering continuous ski operation already by the 2020s. In the 2040s, only half of the ski areas would be able to provide good snow conditions in the Christmas holiday. Snow production would need to double by 2050 to maintain at least a one hundred days season. Increasing snowmaking costs and resource consumption (energy, water) are serious challenges for the winter tourism industry in the upcoming years and decades. Perceptions of Ski Tourism Stakeholders Despite the urgent need for action Tyrolean CEOs of cable car companies and tourism regions currently show themselves to be quite calm and. Those interviewed either feel prepared thanks to snowmaking or do not feel that serious consequences for ski area operations are likely. Strategic, long-term planning is currently lacking behind. Study fills gaps It is the first European study that considers snowmaking in its research design. Moreover, a detailed climate change perception analysis among stakeholders on the supply side has been lacking in the Tyrol region so far. The study results are supposed to support a sustainable and pro-active climate change risk management in Tyrolean winter tourism.