Foundations of Risk Research on the Roman Empire

The term "risks" signifies possible dangers whose likeliness can be calculated mathematically. According to social and communication sciences, the development of stochastics during the 17th century provided the basis for today`s ability to conceive dangers in a rational way and to face them preemptively. Research overviews on the history of dealing with risks convey the impression that before this period, in the Middle Ages and in Antiquity, people would have submitted themselves to a divine will, surrendering with equanimity to an unalterable fate. Several case studies in all classical areas speak against such a view. However, they have never been gathered in a systematic way, nor have they been discussed against the backdrop of a common, superordinate perspective. It is precisely such a perspective that modern risk research has to offer: If one applies its approaches to ancient sources, a completely new field of research opens up, rich in perspectives for every area within Classics. This has already been demonstrated by two preliminary works on the basis of archaeological and epigraphical evidence by which it was possible to draw more profound conclusions on the perception of virtual risks and subjective preoccupations and fears. The proposal aims at offering a first contribution to a hardly explored aspect of ancient mentalities, carrying out a five-step research process into the handling of risks during the imperial period. First, the terms for risk and dangers in ancient literary sources shall be identified and analysed. As a first survey has shown, the word "dice" (alea) surprisingly plays an important role: In fact, by observing dice games, probability calculation emerged in the early modern period. A second step shall question whether the meaning of this word, particularly in its legal use, already reflects incipient stages of distinguishing immediate threats from possible, perhaps reducible ones, i.e. "dangers" from "risks". Thirdly, the points of view of several social groups shall be investigated by using direct evidence from papyri and inscriptions. On the basis of this research a fourth step shall ask whether one can detect a certain development in the perception and management of threatening situations. A final and fifth step takes its starting point from the modern insight that the most threatening dangers are not always the ones most frequently or most insistently thematised in media, nor are they perceived by the individual to be the greatest threat. One needs to examine in which way different ancient sources represent the frequency and significance of risks. By following these five steps, a whole new insight into ancient mentalities, the relation between rationalism and fatalism will open up. For this project cooperation with the Institut für Alte Geschichte und Altertumskunde, Papyrologie und Epigraphik of the University of Vienna is envisaged since by its focus and network it offers perfect research conditions.