Spatio-temporal modelling of family change

Since the 1960s, societies in North-Western Europe have undergone major changes in the area of the family, with increases in nonmarital births, single-parent families, divorce and a decline in the number of marriages. The SPATEMO-project a collaboration between French and Austrian demographers - integrates Austria into an ongoing international comparison of the spatial dynamics of contemporary family changes since the 1960s. Yoann Doignon, based at the Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) within the multidisciplinary social sciences and humanities laboratory IDEES in Rouen (France), leads the French group. Isabella Buber-Ennser, research group leader at the Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, leads the Austrian group. SPATEMO aims to renew thinking about family changes through a spatio-temporal, empirical and spatial modelling approach. The project has two objectives. First, the spatialization and mapping of family changes in the selected countries. We aim to identify the first and last regions affected by these changes, as well as the way in which they have spread geographically. The second objective is to understand the factors underlying the identified spatial dynamics, including cultural and socio- economic dimensions and the role of borders. The project involves the creation of a spatio-temporal database for Austria, by collecting statistical information for Austrian municipalities over a period of 50 years, stemming from different sources (e.g., censuses, vital statistics, population registers). Spatial statistics will be applied to study representation of change and measurement of changes. To identify diffusion processes, we will study how family processes interact over space and time, and explore their similarities and dissimilarities. For analysing the role of border, methods for territorial discontinuities will be applied. To find out what affects how families behave in different regions and how that changes over time, we will use statistical models that explicitly take into account the spatial and temporal dimensions, namely dynamic panel spatial regressions and geographically weighted regressions. SPATEMO will provide new insights into how Austria`s demographics have developed over the last decades, in an international perspective. Describing the spatial dynamics of family changes is a major innovation. The originality of this project lies in the choice to study six dimensions of family changes simultaneously in several European countries at the local geographical level over a long period of more than 50 years. The project will systematically compare the role of borders in the spatial dynamics of family changes. The consideration of different border types (international, cultural, religious, linguistic, etc.) constitutes a further innovation. Analyses of spatial dynamics allow to bring theoretical innovations to family changes, contributing to debates on the socio-economic and cultural dimensions of family changes.