Agricultural land use change for sustainable intensification

Sustainable intensification is a relatively new concept in agriculture, whereby yields are maintained (or increased) but the inputs into the system (such as chemicals and fertilizers) are reduced and/or the negative environmental consequences of growing crops are diminished. We would like to find out if sustainable intensification is possible in Austria. To answer this question a modelling framework of an agent-based model (ABM) linked to an eco- hydrological model will be used to find sustainable cropping practices that can, at the same time, increase yields and reduce nitrogen and phosphorus losses to the environment. Since we will be looking into the future, climate change simulations will also be applied to the modelling framework. The main drivers of crop land use change will be determined for three intensive agricultural landscapes. To establish the drivers of local land use, farmers in three cropped regions in Austria will be questioned on their influencing factors to change crops on their farm. The drivers for the specific agricultural landscape we collect will be transferred into an agent- based model that was developed at the Institute of Social Ecology (SEC) so that land use scenarios can be developed. Existing policies (e.g. Common Agricultural Policy, European Water Framework Directive) will be used as conditions for guiding future crop landscape to be developed by the agents to the future period 2050. By providing the ABM with changes in the boundary conditions, agents in the model (especially farmers) will take corresponding actions that affect the land use. The land use change scenarios will be input into an eco-hydrological model together with climate change simulations. From the resulting eco-hydrological model simulations, we will quantify the crop yields together with any changes to surface water quality for the future period. A comparison of simulated yields with the nitrate and phosphorus loads will indicate which future land use with crop management practices can help achieve sustainable intensification. We will select scenarios that generate the highest yields with the lowest nutrient losses to be possible options for sustainable intensification. The project outcomes will enhance our understanding of human influences on nutrient flows from land to water. ALUCSI is also an important step for building Austrian capacity on land use change impacts to water quality, and furthermore bridges the social and natural sciences.

In the ALUCSI project, a multi-disciplinary modelling framework was used to make progress in the quest for identifying sustainable intensification (SI) options for agriculture. The primary goal of SI is to maintain or improve yields from existing farmland while minimizing adverse environmental impacts, for example on surface water quality. This achievement is crucial for Europe's agricultural landscape, where achieving sustainability is a top priority. The researchers adopted a holistic and innovative modelling approach by combining various scientific disciplines, creating a unique methodology to address the complex issue of SI. The study focused on the Enns catchment, a region with diverse landscapes ranging from mountain pastures to flatlands with intensive crop production. One aspect of the project involved the improvement of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) called SECLAND. This model incorporated farmer decision-making processes based on real-world conditions and was fine-tuned through a participative process involving local famers. The model simulated annual land use changes of agricultural land in the Enns watershed to the year 2050, providing valuable insights into the dynamic nature of agricultural practices. In a subsequent step, the researchers used the data generated by SECLAND in conjunction with an eco-hydrological model called SWAT. This model considered daily crop growth based on environmental conditions and the farm management practices. SWAT simulated the water balance components and nitrogen transport to water bodies. By applying climate scenarios for the future time horizon 2050, the researchers were able to determine the future impacts of the changes in nitrogen flows through the landscape, including the nitrate concentration in surface waters. ALUCSI successfully identified potential options for sustainable intensification in agriculture within the Enns catchment. By considering both land use changes driven by farmer decisions and the impacts of climate change, the researchers gained valuable insights into maintaining or improving future crop yields while safeguarding water quality. ALUCSI contributed significantly to the integration of social science perspectives into hydrological modelling for environmental research, which is a noteworthy step towards a more comprehensive understanding of the intricate relationships between human activities, land use, and water quality. In summary, the ALUCSI project represents a step forward in sustainable intensification research, providing a methodology that combines qualitative and quantitative methods and that can be applied to social ecological systems. The findings offer hope for a future where agriculture can thrive, maintaining productivity while responsibly managing environmental impacts.