Resilience to Socio-environmental Global Challenges

This project examines how Global Changes - including environmental and climate changes, demographic changes, changing consumption patterns, energy and land-use, developments in the politics of food and mental health, and socio-cultural transformations - impact mobility. Specifically, we aim to model social tipping points by utilizing techniques from geographic information systems (GIS) and synthesizing existing geographical, earth science and longitudinal datasets. We also apply a governance of crisis approach to understand how diverse policy areas ranging from sustainable development and disaster risk reduction to health, food, and climate change might be bridged with larger policy frameworks to understand and predict mobility patterns. The project conducts two human- centric case studies of social tipping points: (1) food security and belonging and (2) cultural survival and resilience. These case studies provide new ways of looking at how climate (im-)mobilities and their social tipping points are shaped by socio-cultural contexts and the psycho-social health of populations. Drawing on natural sciences like climate and sustainability studies and on the social sciences of political science, sociology, psychology, economics and anthropology, the project adds to the interdisciplinary diagnostic and prognostic toolbox of Global Change and mobility as well as vulnerability and resilience assessments. This research project utilizes a wide evidence base - from Europe and the Middle East to Africa and South America - to ensure maximum comparative and global impact of its findings. This research project examines the societal and environmental aspects of Global Change and (im-)mobilities to help leaders and the most vulnerable members of societies to understand, adapt and thrive.

Climate change does not automatically make people migrate. Our research in PHOENIX shows that whether people move, stay where they are, or become trapped in difficult conditions depends on much more than climate alone. Livelihoods, income, housing, social networks, access to services and public institutions all shape the choices people have. PHOENIX brought together modelling, literature reviews and comparative case studies to better understand climate related mobility and possible social tipping points. One important finding is that we need to be careful when talking about tipping points. There is good evidence that climate pressures can interact with economic and social stresses in ways that make mobility more difficult or more likely. However, there is much less evidence for a precise point at which migration suddenly begins. This is important for policy, especially when governments want to use thresholds for early warning, disaster response or relocation decisions. Another finding is that communities often adapt faster than institutions. People develop their own ways of coping through mutual support, local knowledge, cultural practices and changes in how they make a living. These responses can be effective, but they are not always recognised or used by public institutions. Better links between communities, local authorities, humanitarian organisations and national governments could help turn local experience into better long term policy. The practical lesson is that climate mobility policy should not focus only on climate hazards. People also need secure housing, income, legal protection, access to services and social support if they are to stay safely or move safely when necessary. Overall, PHOENIX shows that climate mobility is not simply about predicting how many people will move because of climate change. It is about understanding the conditions that shape people's choices and their ability to adapt. The project also explored these issues through the ResART digital exhibition, using art, music, performance and personal stories to communicate experiences of displacement, memory and resilience.