Polarization and Mobilization under Uncertainty

Political debates in the United States have become increasingly polarized in recent years. Conventional wisdom suggests that sharper political divisions should motivate more people to vote. Yet the data show no clear upward trend in voter turnout; instead, participation fluctuates from election to election. We believe that one reason for this pattern is changing uncertainty about who will actually go to the polls and how this affects the expected outcome. This project studies the interplay of three central elements of electionsparty policy choices (polarization), voter participation (turnout), and uncertainty about resultsto understand how they shape each other. To do this, we develop a simplified model of US presidential elections, which is based on insights from political science, economics, and behavioral research on voting. In the model, political parties choose their policy positions, and voters decide whether to vote or abstain. All these decisions are made in the light of some uncertainty about the eventual election outcomes. Elections always involve some uncertainty, for example due to unpredictable events during the campaign or differences in how well parties mobilize their supporters. We examine how this uncertainty affects the incentives of parties to move toward more extreme positions and how it influences citizens willingness to vote. Our approach draws on insights from political science, economics, and behavioral research on voting. Our theoretical model makes it possible to describe how policy choices, voter participation, and uncertainty are connected, and how changes in one of these elements affect the others. For example, we can examine how increasing uncertainty influences turnout, or how different political positions shape voter motivation. To assess how well the model captures reality, we estimate it using publicly available data from past US presidential elections. This validation step allows us to judge whether the model can explain the observed patterns of polarization and turnout across states and years. Once estimated, the model can also be used to make more refined predictions and to explore how sensitive election outcomes are to changes in uncertainty or party strategies. The results will help clarify whether uncertainty tends to discourage participation or whether it can, under certain conditions, motivate voters to become more engaged. They will also show how parties adjust their positions when they anticipate reactions from the electorate. Ultimately, the project seeks to offer a coherent explanation for the dynamics of polarization and turnout and to contribute to broader discussions about electoral reforms and information transparency.